Feb 232011
 

The referendum on whether we should go for the proposed Alternative Voting system or for the traditional first past the post system is coming up in May, and we are now beginning to see politicians spout all sorts of half-truths on the subject. The key thing to remember during the debates amongst politicians is that their views are slanted by self-interest – they unconsciously (or perhaps consciously) want the political system that gives the best results for themselves, rather than the system that best suits the voters.

So we have to rely on our own minds to decide which voting system is best for us, and not trust the politicians.

The traditional system was first formally put in place nationally in The Representation of The People Act 1832, although the first past the post system had been used in various constituencies for centuries before that. Given the contraints of a medieval country, it is quite a good system – simple to administer, easy to understand, and not especially unrepresentative of the population making up the electorate when the number of electors for each MP was vastly less than today.

Today is quite a different matter. The first past the post system means that everyone who did not vote for the elected MP feels disenfranchised, and those who hold differing views to the majority in a safe constituency are very much excluded from the political process. And it can be a very high proportion of the electorate – in one constituency in last year’s election, the MP who was elected had the support of just 37% of the voters.

So how does the Alternative Voting system work ?

Well each voter lists their candidates in order of preference – 1 for their favourite candidate, 2 for their next favourite candidate, etc. You can even list just 1 preference if you are a first past the post fan, or list every possible candidate in order of preference if you want. If nobody wins 50% of the votes, the candidate with the least number of votes is excluded and the next preference from those who voted for him or her are distributed amongst the remaining candidates; this process is repeated until a candidate does get more than 50%. Or presumably there is just one candidate left!

There have even been politicians who claim that the Alternative Voting system is too complex for the voter to understand. Ok, the distribution of votes may be a little tricky for those simpler voters, but ordering your preferred candidates is the important part – and simple enough for the overwhelming majority to understand. Frankly politicians who go around insulting voters should be voted out in the next election!

Is the Alternative Voting system fairer than the first past the vote system ? Well, a bit fairer. Very safe constituencies are likely to carry on being safe constituencies, and minority views are still likely to be under represented (if represented at all!) in Parliament. It certainly is not proportional representation, and doesn’t even come close.

But it does hold several key advantages over the first past the post system :-

  • Firstly, it allows people to vote with the real belief of what candidate should be elected without regard to the likelihood of victory. Those who hold minority views (say perhaps Green party supporters) always have a difficult decision to make under a first past the post system – do they vote for the party they want even though it has no hope of victory ? Or do they vote tactically to vote for the candidate they would dislike the least ? With AV, they get to do both.
  • Secondly it ensures a fairer result in a three-horse race between three candidates. As an example, in a traditionally Tory constituency, it is possible for Labour to slip in, if the Tory vote gets split between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Given the choice a Tory may well wish the Liberal candidate to win if the Tory candidate cannot. Any election system that can return an MP with a minority of the support is flawed.

There are those who do not like the Alternative Voting system because it does not go far enough. It is only a relatively minor improvement to the first past the post system, and there is some inclination to vote against it for that reason. Whilst understandable (and I’m in favour of going further too), it is not the right way to look at it. Whilst we can criticse politicians for not going far enough, or for not giving us a wider choice to choose from, the question to answer here is which voting system do you prefer ? First past the post, or AV ?

Given the choice, I would say that AV is a step in the right direction. It doesn’t go far enough, but we have not been given the choice of saying “something better please”.

So I would say “Yes” – let’s vote for something a little better than the status quo. You are free to make up your own mind, but be wary of listening too closely to the politicians!

Feb 072011
 

Sometimes it seems like breast cancer gets a little too much publicity in comparison to other cancers.; it seems that breast cancer gets 10 mentions in the media to every mention of prostate cancer; not to mention lung cancer which causes more deaths in women than breast cancer.

I’ll be using figures from Cancer Research UK to make the points throughout this posting …

First of all lets get the big figures out of the way. In 2008, breast cancer killed 12,047 women (and 69 men) in comparison to total deaths from cancer of 156,723 – “only” 7%; even excluding cancer deaths for men, breast cancer claimed 16% of all cancer deaths for women.

Lung cancer is the one that claims the most lives – 22% of all cancer deaths are from lung cancer, but we can ignore them because it’s the fault of those smokers. Although according to the Wikipedia article on lung cancer between 10-15% of all deaths from lung cancer are from non-smokers – probably all passive smokers.

After the two big cancers, we get prostate cancer which claimed the lives of 10,168 men, or 6,5% of all cancer deaths – not much behind the levels of breast cancer And just for those who aren’t paying attention, no there were no deaths amongst women from prostate cancer.

Including all deaths from gender specific cancers (and I’ll cheat and include the breast cancer figures for both men and women), male specific cancers account for 6.65% of all cancer deaths, and female specific cancers count for 12.5% of all cancer deaths. That is quite a significant difference, and significantly more than the figure of 7% for breast cancer deaths amongst women.

If you look at cancer as a whole, 52% of all cancer deaths were men, and 48% women. It’s relatively even despite the increased risk women run of dying from a female specific cancer. Of all non gender specific cancers, men had a higher number of deaths in 22 out of 27 different cancer categories.

So let us have a look at the figures from the media. Specifically counting the search results from the BBC News website :-

Search Phrase Number of results Percentage of mentions Percentage of deaths
“Cancer” 14401 100% 100%
“Breast Cancer” 2206 15% 7%
“Prostate cancer” 606 4.2% 6.5%
“Lung Cancer” 758 5.2% 22%
“Rectal Cancer” 40 2.7% 10.4%

I think it’s more than obvious that breast cancer gets a little more attention than the others. That’s not to say it gets too much attention – it’s the others that get too little.

Feb 022011
 

Why is it always expressed as an exclusive choice ? A simple black or white choice – one or the other.

Life of course is not that simple and neither are the possibilities for schools. We have all heard evidence that both boys and girls learn better in lessons that are single sex. The boys do not get distracted by the girls and visa versa; even something as simple as controlling the room temperature – warmer for girls and cooler for boys will make a difference.

For some reason this is always presented as an argument for single sex schools – usually by someone with a financial interest in single sex schools.

Those who argue against single sex schools also have a point that classes are not the only thing that is learnt at school – we also learn to interact with each other which also applies to the opposite sex.

To me, a compromise seems simple – a mixed school with single-sex lessons for “real” subjects and only bring the two sexes together for less result orientated lessons.

Jan 292011
 

In the dim and distant past when keyboards were enclosed in metal cases and you certainly didn’t tuck one under the arm and walk around with it (actually I don’t do now either), the placement of many keys was continually up for debate. But apart from the main QWERTY section, one of the key placements you could rely on was the Control key next to the “A” key. These days it’s been turned into one of those silly CapsLock keys.

Back when I previously did some keymapping, I neglected to mention how I mapped CapsLock into a Control key. As appropriate punishment, changing window managers has somehow meant that my previous mapping had been lost. So I had to figure out how to do it again.

First thing to do is to switch to a text console – I’ll be mapping this at a very low level.

Next thing to do is to find out the scancode of the key I want to map :-

# showkey -s

One started I have to press the key I am interested in within 10 seconds or the program will edit. I press CapsLock and I get two numbers displayed – 3a and ba (they’re in hexadecimal for the base-16 challenged). The first is the key press, and the second is the key release. We can discard the second as Linux is clever enough to figure out one from the other.

The next thing we want to do is to obtain the keycode of the key that we want to map to – in this case the left control key. It probably doesn’t matter here, but it is worth noting that the left and right control keys are different scancodes and keycodes. So you could map then to different things. Anyway, to obtain the keycode of the key we want, run :-

# showkey -k

And press the key to map to.

Lastly we want to construct the command to actually do the mapping :-

setkeycodes 3a 29

This of course has to be added to a script being run when the system boots – you want this mapped as early as possible.

Jan 282011
 

This is a general waffle in relation to the Jasmin Revolution (although the Wikipedia article concentrates on the Tunisian revolution, this phrase is beginning to be used more generally) – no news here.

We often hear that no government can survive without the consent of the people, but what does that mean ? In this case it means that a significant proportion of the people are sufficiently angry with their government to risk violence, arrest, and even death to demonstrate their need for a change. The governments involved can try a variety of tactics to deal with the protestors but their first reaction – violent repression – will only make the protestors more demanding. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of punishing protestors, violence can work if the protestors are a small enough minority, but at a certain point it becomes self-defeating.

If a government offers change, it needs to do so before it resorts to violence – the government wants to offer as little change as possible, and violence means the protestors are more demanding of change. Indeed the government needs to offer just a little more change than it wants to. Offering too little change such as President Mubarak appears to have done, does little to stem the anger of the people.

What makes people annoyed enough with the government to take to the streets ? There are a whole variety of reasons not limited to :-

  • The absence or perceived absence of a say in the composition of the government. Or in other words the lack of a genuinely democratic government. That is not to say that merely having some form of democracy means that a government is immune to this effect as even in a democratic society, there can be those who believe they have no say in their government. For example the UK democratic system can be subject to this effect as people in “safe” constituencies will often believe that they have no say in their government if they do not vote for the party that always wins.
  • A belief that their government does not act in the best interest of the people. This includes but is not limited to the perceived level of corruption within the government or society.
  • Injustice where the people are subject to arbitrary arrest and punishment for “crimes” that most would regard as completely normal activities.
  • A lack of personal freedom (closely associated above) including but not limited to freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and the freedom to go about one’s daily business without undue interference from the government.
  • How old a government is. People can put up with a bad government for a year, or even five, but sooner or later it becomes unpalatable. In fact that even applies to a good government – if it stays in power too long, not only will it be subject to strains that make it a bad government, but even if it avoids those it will be condemned simply because people want change from time to time.
  • The economy. If the economy is poor enough that people are suffering, or income inequalities reach the point where the difference between rich and poor becomes excessive, that is in itself a source of grievance.

Dictatorships are more subject to this kind of problem than democracies, but democracies are not immune.

It is perhaps unfortunate that mass protests usually descend into violence. However it is perhaps inevitable particularly when the forces of control are also violent. There are those who claim that the violence by protestors is somehow caused by “dark forces”. Nothing could be further from the truth – the violence is merely an expression of the level of anger felt. President Mubarak’s “dark forces” cannot instigate these level of protests and when they are underway have no way of controlling them.

It is likely that these accusations are themselves enough to cause the protests to continue.