May 022011
 

We have all heard today about the death of Osama bin Laden. This of course is good news – whilst Al-Queda will carry on, removing their founder is certainly a blow. And who needs terrorists? But I’ve had a few thoughts from the ongoing discussions :-

  1. The celebrations of Americans at the announcement was understandable, but a touch distasteful … it may well have been necessary to kill Osama rather than bring him to justice, but celebrating any death no matter how unpleasant the man himself, is less than dignified.
  2. It is unfortunate that he wasn’t brought to justice to face an international court for crimes against humanity. Killing him was almost certainly unavoidable given his declaration he would rather be killed than captured, but he wasn’t ‘brought to justice’ – that would involve a court and being sentenced to some form of punishment.
  3. It is worth pointing out that Osama got at least part of what he wanted. Given the choice of being killed immediately or being brought to face a court and a lengthy trial, Osama wanted to be killed. Of course he would prefer to be free to create more trouble than he has already.
  4. I rather hope that the US authorities obtained some sort of permission to go into Pakistan – whether it was a blanket permission to “extract Obama” at some point, or whether it was specific authorisation for this mission.
  5. There are those who are saying that as Osama was found “hiding in plain site” as it were, then it is certain that he was being helped out by the Pakistani authorities. This is ridiculous. First of all he was hiding in a walled compound out of plain site. He was probably never in a position to be observed except by those closest to him. Secondly, whilst he may have received assistance from some individuals within the authorities in the past, that is not the same as receiving assistance from the authorities themselves … and the fact he was caught this time is an indication that his support is disappearing.
May 022011
 

More photographs from the sleepy valley :-

1: Sheepy Valley

Sheepy Valley

Apologies for the pun, but it was just hard to resist 🙂

2: Climbing To The Shade

Climbing To The Shade

Getting up this hill was hot work!

3: Hilltop Argument

Hilltop Argument

Which way to go ?

Apr 282011
 

The funniest thing about David Cameron using the phrase “Calm down dear” in Prime Minister’s question time yesterday is that everyone seems to think there are just two possibilities – that he was being sexist, or he was trying to be funny. What everyone seems to have ignored was that he was being a complete idiot too.

Whether he was being sexist or being funny – and I’m on the side that thinks he was trying to be funny – he was being an idiot trying to use a phrase that could be interpreted as condescension to women (i.e. being sexist). Ok, perhaps everyone is allowed the occasional slip up – even the Prime Minister is human after all.

But if he keeps being idiotic, we need to worry – an idiotic Prime Minister is not a good thing!

Apr 242011
 

The following is a rather large table giving the fatality statistics for the Grand National at Aintree over time. There are a considerable number of missing years, but this is as good as I can do given the limited time to work on this. Some explanation can be found at the end :-

Year Runners Finished Fatalies Source Fatality Rate
1839 17 10 1 W 5.88%
1840 13 4 0 W 0.00%
1841 11 10 0 W 0.00%
1842 15 10 0 W 0.00%
1843 16 9 0 W 0.00%
1844 16 9 0 W 0.00%
1845 15 4 1 W 6.67%
1846 22 5 0 W 0.00%
1847 26 7 0 W 0.00%
1848 29 5 3 W 10.34%
1849 24 6 3 W 12.50%
1860 31 #N/A #N/A T 0.00%
1861 9 4 #N/A T 0.00%
1864 25 9 #N/A T 0.00%
1866 30 6 #N/A T 0.00%
1868 21 12 1 T 4.76%
1869 22 10 #N/A T 0.00%
1870 23 12 #N/A T 0.00%
1871 25 #N/A #N/A T 0.00%
1872 25 10 1 T 4.00%
1873 28 14 1 T 3.57%
1874 22 12 #N/A T 0.00%
1875 19 10 1 T 5.26%
1876 19 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1877 16 10 #N/A T 0.00%
1879 18 9 #N/A T 0.00%
1880 14 10 #N/A T 0.00%
1889 20 12 #N/A T 0.00%
1890 16 5 #N/A T 0.00%
1891 21 6 1 T 4.76%
1892 25 16 #N/A T 0.00%
1893 15 8 #N/A T 0.00%
1894 14 9 1 T 7.14%
1895 19 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1896 28 7 #N/A T 0.00%
1900 16 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1902 21 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1903 23 7 1 T 4.35%
1904 26 9 1 T 3.85%
1907 23 8 1 T 4.35%
1909 32 18 #N/A T 0.00%
1910 25 5 #N/A T 0.00%
1911 26 4 #N/A T 0.00%
1913 22 3 #N/A T 0.00%
1914 20 8 #N/A T 0.00%
1915 20 8 #N/A T 0.00%
1916 21 12 #N/A T 0.00%
1919 22 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1920 24 4 #N/A T 0.00%
1921 35 4 #N/A T 0.00%
1922 32 5 2 T 6.25%
1923 28 7 #N/A T 0.00%
1924 30 8 #N/A T 0.00%
1925 35 9 #N/A T 0.00%
1926 30 13 #N/A T 0.00%
1927 37 7 #N/A T != T 0.00%
1928 42 2 0 T 0.00%
1929 66 6 #N/A T 0.00%
1930 41 6 #N/A T 0.00%
1931 43 12 2 T 4.65%
1932 36 9 1 T, or T (5 finishes) 2.78%
1933 34 #N/A #N/A T 0.00%
1934 30 #N/A #N/A T 0.00%
1935 27 6 #N/A T 0.00%
1936 35 7 1 T 2.86%
1937 35 5 #N/A T 0.00%
1938 36 13 1 T 2.78%
1939 37 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1940 30 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1946 34 6 1 T 2.94%
1947 57 18 1 T 1.75%
1948 43 15 #N/A T 0.00%
1949 43 11 1 T 2.33%
1950 49 5 1 T 2.04%
1951 36 3 #N/A T 0.00%
1952 47 10 1 T 2.13%
1953 31 5 2 T 6.45%
1954 29 9 4 T, T, [0] 13.79%
1956 29 9 #N/A T 0.00%
1957 35 11 #N/A T 0.00%
1958 31 7 #N/A T 0.00%
1959 34 4 1 T 2.94%
1960 26 8 1 T 3.85%
1961 35 14 #N/A T 0.00%
1962 32 17 #N/A T 0.00%
1965 47 14 #N/A T 0.00%
1967 44 18 0 T 0.00%
1970 28 7 1 T 3.57%
1971 38 13 #N/A T 0.00%
1972 42 9 #N/A T 0.00%
1976 32 #N/A #N/A T 0.00%
1983 41 10 0 W 0.00%
1984 40 23 1 W 2.25%
1985 8 6 0 W 0.00%
1986 12 10 0 W 0.00%
1987 44 22 1 W 2.27%
1988 40 9 0 W 0.00%
1989 40 14 2 W 5.00%
1990 38 20 2 W 5.26%
1991 40 17 1 W 2.50%
1992 40 22 0 W 0.00%
1993 39 7 0 W 0.00%
1994 36 6 0 W 0.00%
1995 35 15 0 W 0.00%
1996 27 17 1 W 3.70%
1997 36 17 2 W 5.56%
1998 37 6 3 W 8.11%
1999 32 18 1 W 3.13%
2000 40 17 0 W 0.00%
2001 40 4 0 W 0.00%
2002 40 11 2 W 5.00%
2003 40 14 1 W 2.50%
2004 39 11 0 W 0.00%
2005 40 21 0 W 0.00%
2006 40 9 1 W 2.50%
2007 40 12 1 W 2.50%
2008 40 15 1 W 2.50%
2009 40 17 1 W 2.50%
2010 40 14 0 W 0.00%
2011 40 19 2 W 5.00%
2012 40 15 2 BBC 5.00%
2013 40 17 0 BBC 5.00%

First of all, the source columns has the values BBC (for the BBC News website), W (short for WikiPedia) and T (for The Times newspaper). Some of the sources columns have multiple sources (far too few) with an indication of whether the sources agree with each other or not. The “[0]” in the sources column for the 1954 race refers to a quote that is worth duplicating here :-

“Worst day anyone can remember for fatalities.”

Some of the columns have values in that look like “#N/A” … as you might expect, this is the value for “not available”. This is counted as zero when performing calculations on the “fatalities” column. There are three reasons for assuming “n/a” can be assumed to be usually zero :-

  1. It is clear when reading the race reports from The Times, that fatalities were unusual and there is every indication that the reporter made a point of mentioning them.
  2. It would be unusual to say the least to make a point of indicating that a race had no fatalities – when was the last time that a rugby match report pointed out there were no fatalities ?
  3. The report on the 1954 Grand National made it clear that this was the worst Grand National for fatalities “as long as anyone can remember”, which although does not indicate that the previous races had no fatalities, does indicate that 1954 was the worst year for a long time (actually from what I can find, probably the worst ever) and that very few involved in horse racing takes fatalities lightly.

That is not to say that there are not some additional fatalities that I have missed. I am only human and could easily have missed something, and it is certainly possible for reports of fatalities to be missing. However it is noticeable that even the earliest races where you could expect a certain more casual attitude towards the death of horses, that fatalities were very clearly pointed out.

 

Apr 242011
 

I have commented on the Alternative Voting system propose for the UK before, but the “No” campaign stuck a leaflet through my door with some mind boggling rubbish on. So I’ll go through some of their rubbish here …

The very first thing the leaflet goes on about is just how much AV is going to cost – supposedly £250 million. I am not sure I trust their figures especially when they point out that the cost of the referendum itself is £91 million. Who is to say that this £91 million cost does not also include some of the cost of the local elections ? And they quote £130 million for the cost of electronic voting machines – who is to say that this expenditure was not planned anyway ? It may be required for AV, but it is also a way of getting the results much quicker and so would be useful under the existing system.

The “No” sayers go through a long list of things that £250 million could pay for if it was not spent on AV – 2,503 doctors, 6,297 teachers, etc. Really ? Is that per year or for all time ? And what does it matter anyway ? The other way at looking at it, is how much does this £250 million really cost us … £3.57 per person. Is that too much for a fairer voting system ?

Ok, some of you do not believe that AV is fairer, but ignore that for a moment … is it worth the cost of a slightly expensive pint of beer to make our current voting system fairer ? Of course it is.

The next thing the negative ones try to make a point out of is that “The winner should be the one that comes first”. Below this they show four men running a race. This is probably the most ridiculous comparison it is possible to make. First of all, an election is not about winning (except for the putrid politicians), but about choosing a representative to parliament (in the case we’re talking about anyway). The whole point of the electoral system is to select a candidate that best represents the interests of the people in the constituency.

The whole point of the AV system is to allow a greater chance that the representative of the people is supported by at least 50% of the constituents. Under the first past the post system, it is quite common for the elected candidate to gather so few votes that he or she is opposed by the majority of those who voted. How can such a candidate be a good representative ? To return to sport for a moment, there are plenty of sports where you have to achieve a significant margin of victory over your opponent – take tennis for example.

Even in simple races, it isn’t always the winner of a single race that wins in the end – a winner in a heat may be beaten in the final race. And even in that final race, it isn’t just the winner who is rewarded as second and third place also get a prize – admittedly this would mean three MPs for each constituency. Not such a bad idea and there’s even a historical precedence behind it as some constituencies before the 1832 Reform Act elected more than one representative.

Inside the leaflet those who prefer the status quo have compared the two voting systems with the intention of making the AV system seem as complex as possible, with the AV system explained in language that looks like it was written by a lawyer – which will result in a reflex “No thanks” reaction from most of us. But AV really is not that complex at all; it certainly is not as complex as the naysayers would have you believe.

They make a big song and dance about the fact that this AV system means an end to “one person, one vote”. And how the voters for minority parties get more votes than those who choose more popular parties. Well you could describe AV as being a system in which everyone has more than one chance to pick their choice of candidate. That is everyone – so everyone has just as many votes as anyone else.

And I would say that it is still one person, one vote, but the person has a chance to transfer their vote if the most popular candidate fails to get more than 50% of the votes cast.

Another sneaky thing they have done, is to imply that anyone voting for a minor party is going to be some kind of knuckle-dragging extremist – the leaflet specifically mentions the BNP. There are a large number of minor parties that under the current system, or even under AV are exceptionally unlikely to get a candidate elected. However it is deceitful in the extreme to claim that all supporters of minor parties are extremists – what about the Green Party, Respect Party (perhaps a little towards the extreme), Libertarian PartyWessex Regionalist Party?

In fact a system that encourages voting for minority parties allows for more information on the policies that the people want – we can all vote for the Wessex Regionalist Party to get across the message that perhaps we want a Labour MP, but actually we would like people to consider the option to make Wessex independent.

Lastly, the leaflet plays to the anti-Nick Clegg feeling around in the country by claiming that the only party to benefit would be the Liberals under Nick Clegg and it would lead to “broken promises”. Frankly this all just too much for coherent criticism – they are campaigning on a serious issue by making pathetic political point scoring.