Jun 302024

… is excessively exaggerated.

Sure, it looks likely that the Tories will lose the election and quite possibly at a scale even worse than the 1906 election. Much as I like the idea, the likelihood of them being forced into third place is perhaps rather remote.

The key to the Tories’ failure is their Brexit-induced lurch to the right – both in terms of economic policy and in terms of “cultural” policy. They’re not only lurched to the right, but looking at their lack of popularity have doubled-down and gone further right.

The problem (without regard to the stupid viciousness of right-wing policies) is that not every Tory voter is happy with the far right lurch. The Tory supporters always used to be a collection of folk varying from those just right of centre all the way through to goose-stepping full on fascists. The ones closer to the centre than fitting in with the crew with the smart uniform fetish, are currently homeless.

This can best be seen amongst the young where support amongst the 18-24 aged folk is as low as 1%.

The funny thing is that the worse their defeat, the more likely they are to start fixing things. They actually need to be forced into third place. Anything less and they will likely carry on the same path they’re currently on. Which in the end may very well result in them being placed third at the next election; or worse (especially if proportional representation is brought in).

And even if the result is bad enough to spend a long time reconsidering and rebuilding, if they let the extreme right-wingers (of whatever kind) and corrupt spivs retain control, then they won’t get anywhere near power ever again.

No, they need to return to the centre. Rebuild support amongst traditional conservatives who amongst other things respect honesty and probity. Those conservatives (lower case “c”) will go somewhere – either a reconstituted Tory party or a new party.

But death? Well it is possible, but there have been previous incidents of parties being reduced to what the Tories will likely be reduced to – the Liberal party for example. Whilst the modern Liberal Democrats isn’t the same party as the old Liberals, the later did last into the modern era (well, the 1980s).

So if anything being beaten into third place next week, may actually be the best outcome for the Tory party. At least if they mend their ways.

Old Metal 3